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 037 
 WTNT43 KNHC 190250
 TCDAT3
 
 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
 1100 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014
 
 
 Gonzalo has been maintaining a central dense overcast feature over
 the large eye feature noted in microwave satellite imagery since the
 previous advisory. A 19/0116 UTC ASCAT-B high-resolution overpass
 indicated 78-80 kt surface winds in the eastern quadrant about 45
 nmi southeast of the center, so the intensity remains 80 kt for
 this advisory, which could be a conservative estimate. The same
 ASCAT pass also indicted that the wind field in the southeastern
 semicircle had expanded significantly, and the respective wind radii
 have been increased accordingly.
 
 Gonzalo continues to accelerate toward the northeast and the
 initial motion estimate is 040/34 kt. The latest 0000 UTC model
 guidance remains tightly packed, so no significant changes were
 made to the previous forecast track. Gonzalo should continue to move
 northeastward and then east-northeastward in the flow between a
 deep-layer trough to the west of the hurricane and a subtropical
 ridge to its south. The NHC forecast track is just an update of the
 previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus model TVCA.
 The post-tropical portion of the forecast track was coordinated with
 the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.
 
 Recent SST analyses and the forecast motion indicate that Gonzalo
 should continue to move over a thermal ridge for a few more hours,
 which should help the cyclone maintain status as a tropical
 cyclone. By 12 hours, however, SSTs less than 12C and increasing
 southwesterly vertical wind shear of more than 30 kt should result
 in Gonzalo making the transition to a strong post-tropical
 extratropical cyclone.  Gradual weakening is forecast after the
 transition occurs and to continue until dissipation occurs in by 72
 hours. The NHC intensity forecast follows the Decay-SHIPS model
 through 12 hours, and then is based on input from the Ocean
 Prediction Center.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  19/0300Z 42.3N  57.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
  12H  19/1200Z 47.0N  50.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  24H  20/0000Z 52.0N  38.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  36H  20/1200Z 54.0N  24.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  21/0000Z 57.0N   8.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart
 
 
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