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 110 
 WTNT43 KNHC 182041
 TCDAT3
 
 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
 500 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014
 
 After an earlier degradation of the convective cloud pattern,
 Gonzalo has made a recent comeback with the cloud shield having
 become more symmetrical and the eye a little better defined. The
 initial intensity of 80 kt is being maintained at 80 kt based on an
 1443 UTC ASCAT-A overpass which showed a peak of 77 kt in the
 eastern quadrant and the improved satellite presentation. The same
 overpass also indicated that the 64-, 50-, and 34-kt wind radii had
 expanded, and this is indicated in the new initial wind radii.
 
 Gonzalo is accelerating rapidly northeastward and is now moving
 at a brisk 035/31 kt. The hurricane has become deeply embedded
 within the strong southwesterly flow on the east side of a high
 amplitude trough located over the northeastern United States
 and southeastern Canada. Gonzalo is expected to move northeastward
 for the next 24 hours or so and then turn east-northeastward over
 the far north Atlantic on Day 2. The official forecast track is
 similar to the previous advisory track, and closely follows the
 consensus model TVCA. The post-tropical portion of the track
 forecast has been coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.
 
 As Gonzalo continues to gain latitude, the cyclone's wind field
 should continue to expand, accompanied by only slow weakening.
 Gonzalo will be moving over sub-20C SSTs by 12 hours and be under
 southwesterly vertical wind shear of more than 30 kt, which is
 expected to result in transition to a strong post-tropical
 extratropical cyclone by 24 hours. Gradual weakening is expected
 after the transition occurs until dissipation occurs in about 72
 hours. The NHC intensity forecast follows the Decay-SHIPS model
 through 24 hours, and then is based on input from the Ocean
 Prediction Center.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  18/2100Z 39.3N  60.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
  12H  19/0600Z 44.0N  54.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  19/1800Z 49.6N  45.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  36H  20/0600Z 52.5N  31.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  20/1800Z 55.5N  17.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart
 
 
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It was last modified on: , 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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