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 182 
 WTNT43 KNHC 180835
 TCDAT3
 
 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
 500 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014
 
 The eye of Gonzalo is no longer apparent in geostationary imagery,
 but an enhanced area of cold cloud tops is still noted near the
 center position. The initial intensity has been lowered to 90 kt
 based on the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB and a blend of the
 latest ADT CI and final-T numbers. Steady weakening is forecast
 during the next 24 hours while Gonzalo moves across cooler waters.
 The cyclone will cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream by 24 hours
 and should be extratropical shortly after that time. Slow decay is
 forecast during the extratropical phase before the cyclone
 dissipates in about 4 days.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 030/19, as Gonzalo is embedded in
 southwesterly flow between a mid-level ridge to the southeast and a
 deep-layer trough moving offshore of eastern North America. Gonzalo
 should pass near or just southeast of Newfoundland in 24 to 36 hours
 and then move rapidly eastward across the north Atlantic until
 dissipation. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the left of
 the previous one through 36 hours due to a westward shift in the
 track guidance this cycle. After that time, the NHC forecast is
 largely an update of the previous one.
 
 The post-tropical portion of the forecast has been coordinated with
 the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  18/0900Z 34.7N  63.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
  12H  18/1800Z 38.2N  60.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
  24H  19/0600Z 44.2N  54.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  19/1800Z 49.7N  44.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  20/0600Z 53.0N  31.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  21/0600Z 56.0N   3.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan
 
 
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