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 027 
 WTNT43 KNHC 180257
 TCDAT3
 
 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
 1100 PM AST FRI OCT 17 2014
 
 Hurricane Gonzalo passed over the central portion of the island of
 Bermuda at around 0030 UTC this evening based on Bermuda radar data,
 various surface observations on the island, and pressure reports
 from an amateur radio operator -- call sign VP9NI -- located in
 Devonshire Parish.  The initial intensity of 95 kt is based on
 recent ADT values of 97 kt.
 
 Radar fixes indicate that Gonzalo is moving north-northeastward or
 030/13 kt. There is no significant change to the previous track
 forecast or reasoning based on the tightly packed NHC model
 guidance. The hurricane should begin to accelerate toward the
 northeast as Gonzalo becomes embedded deeper within the increasing
 southwesterly flow ahead of a strong mid-latitude trough located
 off of the U.S. east coast. By 36 hours, Gonzalo is expected to be
 passing just to the southeast of Newfoundland as a strong
 post-tropical cyclone. The official forecast track is similar to
 the previous advisory and is near the consensus model TVCA.
 
 Slow weakening is expected for the next 12 hours or so due to
 gradually increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear, followed by
 more rapid weakening after that as Gonzalo moves over sub-24C SSTs
 by 24 hours, and moves over even colder ocean tempratures after
 that. Gonzalo is forecast to transition into a post-tropical
 cyclone by 36 hours as it passes near or to the southeast of
 Newfoundland.
 
 The following information is provided at the request of the Bermuda
 Weather Service -- damage to the old and new hospitals has been
 reported, the AWOS weather sensors at the Bermuda International
 Airport have been damaged due to saltwater inundation and are
 inoperable, and the RCC Bermuda Radio Maritime Operations Center at
 St. Georges has been damaged and is inoperable.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  18/0300Z 32.7N  64.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
  12H  18/1200Z 35.9N  62.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
  24H  19/0000Z 41.2N  57.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  19/1200Z 47.0N  49.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  20/0000Z 52.0N  39.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  21/0000Z 57.0N  11.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart
 
 
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It was last modified on: , 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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