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 481 
 WTNT43 KNHC 172057
 TCDAT3
 
 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
 500 PM AST FRI OCT 17 2014
 
 Another reconnaissance plane has been in and around the eye of
 Gonzalo and found no significant change in the structure of the
 hurricane. Maximum flight-level winds were 124 kt, but the highest
 SFMR wind was 88 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is
 estimated to be 100 kt. The minimum central pressure remains around
 949 mb. Although there has been a slight decrease in the surface
 winds, no significant change in intensity is expected before the eye
 crosses Bermuda in a few hours. Due to the large observed
 differential between the winds at the surface and aloft, a higher
 than normal gust factor has been used in this advisory.
 
 After Gonzalo passes Bermuda, increasing shear and cooler waters
 along the track of the hurricane should result in a faster
 weakening.  Gonzalo is likely to transition into a post-tropical
 cyclone by 36 to 48 hours as it moves near or south of Newfoundland.
 This is the consensus of most of the global models.
 
 Aircraft fixes indicate that the hurricane is moving toward the
 north-northeast or 025 degrees at 14 kt. Gonzalo should accelerate
 and turn to the northeast once it becomes completely embedded within
 the faster southwesterly mid-latitude flow ahead of a deepening
 trough along the east coast of the United States. There has been no
 change in the guidance, and the NHC forecast is similar to the
 previous one.
 
 Significant coastal flooding on Bermuda is likely. Although specific
 amounts cannot be forecast for Gonzalo, Hurricane Fabian produced an
 estimated 10 feet of storm surge when it moved over Bermuda as a
 major hurricane in 2003, and similar values could occur with
 Gonzalo.
 
 Given the proximity of this dangerous hurricane to Bermuda, NHC will
 provide hourly position updates until Gonzalo clears Bermuda.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  17/2100Z 31.7N  65.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
  12H  18/0600Z 34.1N  63.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
  24H  18/1800Z 38.7N  60.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
  36H  19/0600Z 44.7N  54.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  19/1800Z 50.5N  45.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  20/1800Z 56.5N  18.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  21/1800Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila
 
 
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It was last modified on: , 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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