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 692 
 WTNT43 KNHC 171455
 TCDAT3
 
 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
 1100 AM AST FRI OCT 17 2014
 
 
 Gonzalo is under surveillance by a NOAA hurricane hunter plane and
 its eye is in the scope of the Bermuda radar.  Maximum winds
 measured so far by the SFMR on board the plane are 104 kt, and on
 this basis the initial intensity is lowered to 110 kt. This slight
 weakening is in agreement with the fact that the eye on satellite is
 not as distinct as it was 12 hours ago, and the Dvorak t-numbers are
 decreasing.
 
 Although it appears that a gradual weakening has begun, Gonzalo is
 expected to be a dangerous Category 3 hurricane as it
 moves near or over Bermuda later today. After that time, increasing
 shear and cooler waters along the track of the hurricane should
 result in a faster weakening.  Gonzalo is likely to transition
 into a post-tropical cyclone by 36 to 48 hours as it moves near or
 south of Newfoundland, and become fully extratropical thereafter.
 
 Radar and aircraft fixes indicate that the hurricane is moving
 toward the north-northeast or 025 degrees at 14 kt. Gonzalo should
 accelerate and turn to the northeast once it becomes completely
 embedded within the faster southwesterly mid-latitude flow ahead of
 a deepening trough along the east coast of the United States. The
 guidance remains tightly clustered, and
 There is no reason to deviate much from the previous NHC forecast
 which shows a powerful hurricane passing near or over Bermuda
 later today, and a post-tropical cyclone passing south of
 Newfoundland in about 36 to 48 hours.
 
 Significant coastal flooding on Bermuda is likely if Gonzalo
 continues on the current NHC forecast track. Although specific
 amounts cannot be forecast for Gonzalo, Hurricane Fabian produced an
 estimated 10 feet of storm surge when it moved over Bermuda as a
 major hurricane in 2003, and similar values could occur with
 Gonzalo.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  17/1500Z 30.4N  66.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
  12H  18/0000Z 32.6N  64.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
  24H  18/1200Z 36.3N  62.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
  36H  19/0000Z 41.5N  58.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
  48H  19/1200Z 48.0N  49.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  20/1200Z 55.0N  25.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  21/1200Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila
 
 
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It was last modified on: , 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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