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 451 
 WTNT43 KNHC 170837
 TCDAT3
 
 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
 500 AM AST FRI OCT 17 2014
 
 Gonzalo appears to be slowly filling. Satellite imagery shows a net
 degradation in the organization of the cloud pattern over the last
 6 to 12 hours, with somewhat warmer cloud top temperatures within
 the central dense overcast and some erosion of deep convection over
 the western semicircle of the circulation. Satellite data suggest
 also that current eyewall replacement is nearly complete, with the
 last vestiges of the inner eyewall dissipating within a larger 30
 n mi diameter eye. The initial intensity has been lowered to 115
 kt, which is just a bit above the latest ADT estimate of 110 kt.
 The next reconnaissance aircraft should arrive around 1200 UTC to
 better assess Gonzalo's intensity and structure.
 
 With Gonzalo encountering slowly increasing shear and over
 somewhat cooler waters, only gradual weakening is expected
 during the next 12 to 24 hours.  Regardless, Gonzalo should remain a
 dangerous hurricane as it passes Bermuda later today. After 24
 hours, a steady increase in south-southwesterly vertical wind shear
 and sharply lower sea surface temperatures should contribute to a
 markedly faster weakening. Gonzalo is likely to transition into a
 post-tropical cyclone by 48 hours and become extratropical in 60-72
 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one,
 and is about halfway between the multi-model consensus and the
 SHIPS model through 24 hours and near the multi-model consensus
 after that time.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 025/13, slightly faster than before.
 Gonzalo should accelerate further on roughly the same heading
 during the next couple of days as the hurricane is swept up in the
 south-southwesterly flow ahead of a deep-layer trough currently over
 the eastern United States. A turn toward the east-northeast and
 east with an additional increase in forward speed is then forecast
 when Gonzalo nears Newfoundland in about 48 hours. The new NHC track
 forecast is along the previous one but a bit slower to account for
 a slower trend in much of the track model guidance.
 
 Significant coastal flooding on Bermuda is likely if Gonzalo
 continues on the current NHC forecast track. Although specific
 amounts cannot be forecast for Gonzalo, Hurricane Fabian produced an
 estimated 10 feet of storm surge when it moved over Bermuda as a
 major hurricane in 2003, and similar values could occur with
 Gonzalo.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  17/0900Z 29.3N  66.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
  12H  17/1800Z 31.3N  65.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
  24H  18/0600Z 34.5N  63.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
  36H  18/1800Z 38.9N  60.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
  48H  19/0600Z 44.5N  54.0W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  72H  20/0600Z 54.0N  32.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  21/0600Z 56.6N   6.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Kimberlain/Brennan
 
 
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It was last modified on: , 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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