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 022 
 WTNT43 KNHC 170231
 TCDAT3
 
 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
 1100 PM AST THU OCT 16 2014
 
 The latest hurricane hunter mission into Gonzalo found peak
 flight-level winds of 136 kt, with SFMR values of 107 kt.  A blend
 of these winds gives a surface wind speed estimate of about 120 kt
 for the current intensity, a bit lower than before.  This slight
 weakening is also suggested by the latest satellite pictures, which
 show that the eye has become less distinct.
 
 No significant change in strength is forecast for the next 12
 hours while Gonzalo remains over warm water with little shear,
 although some fluctuations are possible due to internal eyewall
 cycle dynamics.  A more steady weakening is expected by late
 tomorrow since the hurricane will be moving over substantially
 cooler SSTs.  However, any weakening is probably too late to spare
 Bermuda, with almost all of the guidance showing the system as a
 major hurricane as it moves nearby.  In 36-48 hours, shear is
 forecast to increase dramatically which should continue the
 weakening process, and start extratropical transition over cold
 waters.  The NHC forecast is about the same as the previous
 interpolated forecast, and follows the trend of the intensity
 consensus. Extratropical transition is still shown at day 3,
 although it could be close to losing tropical characteristics
 just after 48 hours.
 
 Gonzalo is accelerating toward the north-northeast, now moving at
 about 12 kt.  Global models are in good agreement on the hurricane
 entering the flow ahead of a deep-layer trough over the eastern
 United States, and this pattern is expected to cause Gonzalo to
 accelerate further toward the north-northeast during the next 48
 hours. All of the reliable guidance show Gonzalo passing over or
 within 30 nm to the west of the island, and little change has been
 made to the forecast track through 2 days.  Gonzalo should race
 northeastward and east-northeastward as an extratropical cyclone
 over the far north Atlantic.
 
 Significant coastal flooding on Bermuda is likely if Gonzalo
 continues on the current NHC forecast track.  Although specific
 amounts cannot be forecast for Gonzalo, Hurricane Fabian produced an
 estimated 10 feet of storm surge when it moved over Bermuda as a
 major hurricane in 2003, and similar values could occur with
 Gonzalo.
 
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  17/0300Z 28.0N  67.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
  12H  17/1200Z 29.7N  66.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
  24H  18/0000Z 32.5N  64.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
  36H  18/1200Z 36.4N  62.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
  48H  19/0000Z 42.0N  57.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
  72H  20/0000Z 52.0N  39.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  21/0000Z 56.5N  12.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake
 
 
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