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 322 
 WTNT43 KNHC 162031
 TCDAT3
 
 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
 500 PM AST THU OCT 16 2014
 
 Recent microwave data indicate that Gonzalo has a concentric
 eyewall structure, with a small open inner ring of convection
 surrounded by a larger closed ring.  The satellite presentation has
 not changed appreciably since this morning, and the CI estimate from
 the UW-CIMSS ADT supports maintaining the initial intensity at 125
 kt.  An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
 investigate Gonzalo later this evening and should give us a better
 handle on the hurricane's current intensity.
 
 Light westerly shear has been affecting Gonzalo, but it hasn't been
 enough to disrupt the hurricane's structure.  Vertical shear is
 forecast to increase slightly during the next 12-24 hours, and then
 increase substantially after 48 hours.  Also, sea surface
 temperatures along Gonzalo's forecast path are expected to be at
 least 26C for the next 48 hours.  Therefore, only gradual weakening
 is anticipated during the next couple of days while Gonzalo moves
 near Bermuda.  More rapid weakening should occur after 48 hours
 once Gonzalo moves north of the Gulf Stream and is affected by
 40-50 kt of westerly shear.  The NHC intensity forecast closely
 follows the intensity consensus ICON, and no significant changes
 were required to the previous forecast.  The global models indicate
 that Gonzalo will likely become extratropical by 72 hours, and that
 is now indicated in the NHC forecast.
 
 Gonzalo has turned north-northeastward and begun to accelerate with
 an initial motion estimate of 015/8 kt.  The hurricane is entering
 the flow ahead of a deep-layer trough located over the eastern
 United States, and this pattern is expected to cause Gonzalo to
 accelerate further toward the north-northeast during the next 48
 hours.  After 48 hours, the cyclone is forecast to turn
 northeastward and east-northeastward over the north Atlantic.  The
 track guidance is tightly clustered for much of the forecast
 period.  However, the new models are again a little slower than the
 previous forecast, and they have shifted northwestward between 48-72
 hours.  The updated NHC track forecast has also been shifted
 northwestward during that time toward the TVCA model consensus.
 
 Significant coastal flooding on Bermuda is likely if Gonzalo
 continues on the current NHC forecast track.  Although specific
 amounts cannot be forecast for Gonzalo, Hurricane Fabian produced an
 estimated 10 feet of storm surge when it moved over Bermuda as a
 major hurricane in 2003, and similar values could occur with
 Gonzalo.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  16/2100Z 27.1N  68.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
  12H  17/0600Z 28.7N  67.3W  120 KT 140 MPH
  24H  17/1800Z 31.1N  65.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
  36H  18/0600Z 34.3N  64.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
  48H  18/1800Z 39.0N  60.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
  72H  19/1800Z 50.5N  46.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  20/1800Z 55.0N  21.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Berg
 
 
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