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 418 
 WTNT43 KNHC 160838
 TCDAT3
 
 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
 500 AM AST THU OCT 16 2014
 
 The satellite presentation of Gonzalo has improved during the past
 few hours, with the eye warming and becoming more distinct since
 the last advisory. The 0600 UTC Dvorak estimate from TAFB was
 T6.0/115 kt and the 0715 UTC ADT was T6.2/120 kt. The initial
 intensity is set to 120 kt for this advisory based on the improving
 satellite appearance. The next Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be
 investigating Gonzalo around 1200 UTC to provide more information on
 the storm's intensity.
 
 Given the recent satellite trends, it seems that Gonzalo has
 completed the earlier eyewall replacement cycle. Some additional
 fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 12 hours
 while Gonzalo remains over SSTs around 29C. Gradual weakening is
 forecast through 36 hours while SSTs slowly cool along the
 track and the shear begins to increase, and Gonzalo is expected to
 remain a dangerous hurricane as it passes near Bermuda on Friday.
 After 36 hours, faster weakening is shown as Gonzalo becomes
 post-tropical and then gradually decays as an extratropical cyclone
 late in the period. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little above
 most of the guidance in the short term and then trends toward the
 LGEM model while Gonzalo remains a tropical cyclone.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 360/08, as Gonzalo is moving
 northward to the west of a subtropical ridge. The model guidance is
 in very good agreement on the track forecast scenario, with Gonzalo
 expected to recurve ahead of a mid-latitude trough moving off the
 east coast of North America. The guidance this cycle has trended a
 little to the right through 48 hours and the NHC track has been
 adjusted 20-30 miles in that direction. This forecast is now a
 little to the left of the multi-model consensus and brings the
 center of Gonzalo very close to Bermuda in about 36 hours. Late in
 the period, post-tropical Gonzalo is expected to pass south of
 Newfoundland and then accelerate northeastward and eastward across
 the north Atlantic. At days 3 through 5, the new NHC forecast is
 largely an update of the previous one.
 
 The post-tropical portion of the forecast has been coordinated with
 the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  16/0900Z 25.3N  68.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
  12H  16/1800Z 26.8N  68.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
  24H  17/0600Z 29.2N  67.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
  36H  17/1800Z 31.9N  65.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
  48H  18/0600Z 35.3N  63.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
  72H  19/0600Z 45.5N  53.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  96H  20/0600Z 52.0N  33.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  21/0600Z 55.0N  10.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan
 
 
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It was last modified on: , 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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