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 772 
 WTNT43 KNHC 152045
 TCDAT3
 
 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
 500 PM AST WED OCT 15 2014
 
 Gonzalo is not quite as well organized as it was this morning.
 Satellite images show that the eye of the hurricane appears less
 distinct than it was earlier today, and radar images from a NOAA
 hurricane hunter aircraft earlier today suggested than the inner
 eyewall could be eroding.  The initial wind speed is lowered
 to 110 kt based on the slightly degraded appearance of the
 storm.  Another Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
 investigate Gonzalo this evening and should provide a better
 assessment of its intensity and structure.
 
 The hurricane remains on track and is moving northwestward at about
 9 kt.  Water vapor images show a large trough over the eastern
 United States.  This trough is expected to move eastward during the
 next couple of days, which should cause Gonzalo to make a turn
 toward the north on Thursday and north-northeast on Friday, likely
 bringing Gonzalo near Bermuda in about 2 days.  After that time, a
 faster northeastward and then east-northeastward motion is
 predicted over the North Atlantic Ocean.  The track model guidance,
 in general, is a little slower than it was at 1200 UTC and the
 official forecast has been adjusted accordingly.  The guidance is
 also not quite as tightly clustered as it has been, as the ECMWF
 has shifted a bit west of the rest of the primary objective aids.
 
 The large scale environmental conditions are expected to remain
 favorable during the next day or so, and the intensity of Gonzalo
 will likely fluctuate due to eyewall replacement cycles.  In
 about 48 hours, the hurricane is expected to be moving into an
 atmosphere of increasing southwesterly shear and drier air, and over
 sharply colder waters.  These conditions should cause weakening and
 post-tropical transition in 3 to 4 days.
 
 NOAA buoy 41046 recently reported a pressure of 955 mb, and was
 quite useful in estimating Gonzalo's minimum pressure.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  15/2100Z 24.1N  68.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
  12H  16/0600Z 25.3N  68.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
  24H  16/1800Z 27.2N  68.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
  36H  17/0600Z 29.7N  67.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
  48H  17/1800Z 32.9N  65.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
  72H  18/1800Z 41.8N  58.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
  96H  19/1800Z 51.0N  42.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  20/1800Z 54.0N  20.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 
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It was last modified on: , 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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