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 531 
 WTNT43 KNHC 150850
 TCDAT3
 
 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
 500 AM AST WED OCT 15 2014
 
 The small eye of Gonzalo has become a little less distinct in
 infrared satellite imagery overnight.  It is possible that an eye
 wall replacement has begun, but there has been no recent microwave
 images to assess the current structure of the inner core.  There
 has been little change in the subjective and objective Dvorak
 satellite intensity estimates overnight and the initial wind speed
 remains 110 kt for this advisory.  Another Air Force Reserve
 reconnaissance aircraft is en route to the hurricane, which should
 provide a better assessment of the intensity of Gonzalo this
 morning.
 
 A UW/CIMSS shear analysis and the SHIPS model indicate that there is
 still some light to moderate southerly shear over the hurricane, but
 the shear is expected to decrease today.  This favors
 intensification, however difficult-to-predict eye wall replacement
 cycles could cause some fluctuations in intensity during the next
 day or two.  The NHC forecast calls for some slight intensification
 today followed by little change in strength in 24 to 48 hours.
 After that time, increasing southwesterly shear, drier air, and
 cooler sea surface temperatures should cause weakening.  Gonzalo is
 expected to become extratropical by day 4, and the global models
 indicate that it will remain a powerful extratropical low through
 the end of the forecast period.
 
 Gonzalo is moving northwestward or 320/11 kt.  The forecast track
 reasoning remains unchanged.  The hurricane should turn north-
 northwestward and northward during the next day or so as it moves
 around the western side of a mid-level ridge over the central
 Atlantic.  After that time, Gonzalo is forecast to turn
 north-northeastward and accelerate ahead of a mid-latitude trough
 that will be moving off the east coast of the United States.  The
 track guidance is in excellent agreement on this scenario, however
 the updated NHC forecast has been shifted a little west of
 the previous advisory to be closer to the middle of the guidance
 envelope.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  15/0900Z 22.9N  67.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
  12H  15/1800Z 24.0N  68.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
  24H  16/0600Z 25.5N  68.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
  36H  16/1800Z 27.3N  68.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
  48H  17/0600Z 29.9N  67.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
  72H  18/0600Z 37.5N  62.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
  96H  19/0600Z 48.5N  52.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  20/0600Z 54.0N  30.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown
 
 
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It was last modified on: , 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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