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 036 
 WTNT43 KNHC 150315
 TCDAT3
 
 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
 1100 PM AST TUE OCT 14 2014
 
 Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft
 indicate that Gonzalo has continued to strengthen.  The plane
 reported maximum flight-level of 125 kt in the northeastern
 quadrant and peak SFMR winds of 108 kt. The minimum surface pressure
 also has fallen about 17 mb during the last 9 hours to 954 mb.
 Satellite images show that the eye has warmed and shrunk to a
 diameter of 8 n mi while the inner core has generally become better
 defined. However, Gonzalo has been maintaining an asymmetric
 distribution of convection, presumably due to around 15 kt of
 south-southwesterly shear of affecting the cyclone according to the
 latest SHIPS and UW-CIMSS shear analyses. A blend of the flight-
 level and SFMR wind data is used to raise the initial intensity of
 110 kt.
 
 Water vapor imagery and cloud-tracked wind vectors show an upper-
 level trough between Bermuda and the southeastern U.S. responsible
 for the south-southwesterly shear over Gonzalo, but the shear should
 not be enough to prevent additional intensification from taking
 place over warm waters of 28-29 deg C during the next day or so.
 At some point during this time, fluctuations in strength due to
 difficult-to-forecast inner core evolution are probable. By 72
 hours, a significant increase in south-southwesterly shear should
 induce a considerable weakening trend. Increasing baroclinicity in
 the near-storm environment, much cooler waters, and drier and more
 stable air wrapping around the hurricane's circulation should result
 in extratropical transition by day 4. The NHC intensity forecast is
 about the same as the previous one, and is near or higher than the
 highest intensity guidance (SHIPS/LGEM) through 36 hours but close
 to the multi-model consensus after that.
 
 Gonzalo has continued to move on a northwestward course, or 320/11,
 though the center has wobbled a bit toward the left during the
 last couple of hours.  The hurricane should gradually turn north-
 northwestward and then northward and slow down as it moves around
 the western periphery of an eastward-shifting central Atlantic ridge
 during the next 24 to 36 hours.  By 48 hours, Gonzalo should
 encounter a deep-layer south-southwesterly flow associated with a
 potent mid-latitude trough swinging out of the east-central United
 States. This flow pattern should turn Gonzalo north-northeastward
 with increasing forward speed.  Although the track guidance is
 tightly clustered through 72 hours, there is still some along-track
 spread in the model solutions, with the ECMWF depicting a weaker and
 much-slower-moving cyclone.  The new NHC forecast places less weight
 on the ECMWF, owing to Gonzalo's current intensity. The official NHC
 forecast lies on the far eastern side of the guidance envelope and
 to the right of the multi-model consensus.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  15/0300Z 22.2N  66.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
  12H  15/1200Z 23.4N  67.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
  24H  16/0000Z 24.9N  68.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
  36H  16/1200Z 26.3N  68.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
  48H  17/0000Z 28.5N  67.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
  72H  18/0000Z 34.7N  64.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
  96H  19/0000Z 45.1N  56.7W   80 KT  90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  20/0000Z 52.5N  42.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Kimberlain
 
 
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It was last modified on: , 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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