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 922 
 WTNT43 KNHC 142041
 TCDAT3
 
 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
 500 PM AST TUE OCT 14 2014
 
 Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft earlier
 today indicated flight-level and SFMR wind data that were just below
 the threshold of a major hurricane. On the last flight leg, the
 aircraft measured a central pressure of 971 mb, which was down 2 mb
 from what was measured at the start of the mission. The eye had also
 contracted from a 20 nmi diameter down to about 16 nmi on the last
 report. Recent data from the NOAA Doppler radar in San Juan indicate
 that the eye has contracted to about 15 nmi at an altitude of about
 36,000 ft since the aircraft departed a few hours ago, signifying
 that the eye diameter is likely smaller at lower altitudes. In
 addition, satellite imagery indicates that the eye has cleared out
 and warmed while cloud tops have cooled significantly in the
 surrounding eyewall. Based on the trends noted in the radar and
 satellite data, the intensity has been increased to 100 kt, which is
 supported by a UW-CIMSS ADT value of T5.4/100 kt.
 
 Gonzalo continues to move steadily northwestward with a motion of
 320/11 kt. The NHC model guidance is tightly packed and remains is
 in excellent agreement on Gonzalo moving steadily northwestward
 around the periphery of a deep-layer ridge located to its north
 during the next 36 hours or so. By 48 hours, a deep mid-tropospheric
 trough and cold front are expected to move eastward across the
 Bahamas and weaken the western portion of the ridge. This should
 allow the cyclone to turn slowly northward, and then accelerate
 northeastward by 72 hours ahead of the aforementioned trough and
 front, with the hurricane potentially threatening Bermuda on Day 3.
 Gonzalo is expected to merge with the cold front or become
 extratropical by 120 hours. The new track forecast is just an update
 of the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the
 GFEX and TVCA consensus models.
 
 With the eye of Gonzalo having contracted and become more distinct
 in satellite, radar, and recon wind data, the system appears primed
 for intensification into a category 4 hurricane later tonight or
 on Wednesday. Sea-surface temperatures ahead of the cyclone are
 sufficiently warm enough at 28C-28.5C to support a category 4
 hurricane through at least the next 36 hours. The global models
 continue to indicate that the best vertical shear conditions and 200
 mb upper-level outflow pattern are expected to occur on Wednesday
 and continue into Thursday morning. Afterwards, eyewall cycles and
 possible cold upwelling beneath the hurricane are likely to cause
 some fluctuations in the intensity. By 72 hours, increasing vertical
 wind shear ahead of the aforementioned deep trough is expected to
 induce weakening. By 120 hours, Gonzalo will be over sub-20C SSTs in
 the North Atlantic and experiencing vertical shear of 50-60 kt,
 which should result in the cyclone becoming an extratropical low.
 The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and
 remains above all of the available intensity guidance.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  14/2100Z 21.2N  66.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
  12H  15/0600Z 22.5N  67.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
  24H  15/1800Z 24.0N  68.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
  36H  16/0600Z 25.4N  68.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
  48H  16/1800Z 27.2N  68.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
  72H  17/1800Z 32.0N  65.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
  96H  18/1800Z 39.9N  60.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 120H  19/1800Z 49.0N  50.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart
 
 
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It was last modified on: , 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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