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 344 
 WTNT43 KNHC 140855
 TCDAT3
 
 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
 500 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2014
 
 Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that Gonzalo
 has continued to quickly strengthen overnight while the eye has
 passed just northeast of the British Virgin Islands.  The aircraft
 measured a peak flight-level wind of 116 kt in the northeastern
 eyewall and SFMR surface winds of 92 kt. A blend of these data yield
 an initial intensity of 95 kt for this advisory.  The SHIPS model
 and a UW-CIMSS shear analysis show about 15 to 20 kt of south-
 southwesterly shear over Gonzalo, which may be why the eye has not
 become apparent in infrared imagery.  The shear is forecast to
 decrease and remain low during the next few days while the hurricane
 moves over warm water. This should allow for additional
 strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours. Eyewall cycles are
 likely to cause some fluctuations in intensity after that time. In
 about 3 days, gradual weakening is predicted to begin as Gonzalo
 will be moving over gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures
 and into an area of increasing southwesterly shear.  The updated NHC
 intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS guidance, and is a little
 higher than the previous advisory through 72 hours due to the
 higher initial intensity.
 
 Gonzalo is moving northwestward or 315/11 kt.  The hurricane is
 expected to remain on a northwestward heading during the next 24 to
 36 hours.  After that time, Gonzalo should turn northward, then
 north-northeastward ahead a mid-latitude trough that is forecast to
 move off the east coast of the United States in 2 to 3 days. Late
 in the period, the hurricane should accelerate northeastward in
 deep layer southwesterly flow over the North Atlantic.  The track
 guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, but there remains
 some spread in the forward speed of the hurricane after 72 hours.
 The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and
 is close to the GFEX and TVCA consensus models.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  14/0900Z 19.6N  64.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
  12H  14/1800Z 21.0N  65.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
  24H  15/0600Z 22.7N  67.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
  36H  15/1800Z 24.1N  68.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
  48H  16/0600Z 25.4N  68.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
  72H  17/0600Z 28.9N  67.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
  96H  18/0600Z 34.5N  64.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 120H  19/0600Z 43.5N  56.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown
 
 
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