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 354 
 WTNT43 KNHC 140242
 TCDAT3
 
 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
 1100 PM AST MON OCT 13 2014
 
 The eye of Gonzalo moved just north of St. Maarten and over Anguilla
 earlier this evening. St. Maarten reported a peak 2-minute wind of
 55 kt and a gust of 65 kt with a minimum pressure of 994 mb. Data
 from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft earlier indicated peak 700-mb
 flight-level winds of around 85 kt, which support an intensity of 75
 kt for this advisory. This intensity is also supported by the latest
 Dvorak classification of T4.5 from TAFB. The next Hurricane Hunter
 aircraft will be investigating Gonzalo around 0600 UTC.
 
 Gonzalo appears to be poised to intensify, perhaps rapidly, in the
 next day or so. The inner-core features are quite distinct in
 recent microwave imagery and a warm spot has recently developed in
 infrared imagery with a more symmetric cloud pattern. Given these
 trends and the overall favorable environment, the intensity
 forecast has been adjusted upward and is close to the the SHIPS
 model on the high end of the intensity guidance through the first 48
 hours, showing Gonzalo becoming a major hurricane in about 36 hours.
 As Gonzalo gains latitude later in the period, southwesterly shear
 ahead of a mid-latitude trough and cooler SSTs should result in
 gradual weakening.
 
 The eye of Gonzalo is now evident in WSR-88D imagery from San Juan,
 and the initial motion estimate is 315/10. Overall, the track
 forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as the hurricane will
 move northwestward into a weakness in the subtropical ridge and
 then accelerate northward and northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude
 trough moving off the east coast of the United States. The new NHC
 track forecast has been shifted a little to the right in the first
 48 hours due to the initial position and motion and an adjustment
 and toward the latest multi-model consensus. Beyond that time, the
 new NHC forecast is largely and update of the previous one and is
 close to but a bit slower than a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models,
 especially by day 5.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  14/0300Z 18.7N  63.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
  12H  14/1200Z 19.8N  64.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
  24H  15/0000Z 21.5N  66.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
  36H  15/1200Z 23.1N  67.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
  48H  16/0000Z 24.5N  68.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
  72H  17/0000Z 27.3N  67.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
  96H  18/0000Z 31.5N  65.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 120H  19/0000Z 37.0N  61.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan
 
 
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