Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 207 
 WTNT43 KNHC 131452
 TCDAT3
 
 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
 1100 AM AST MON OCT 13 2014
 
 An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Gonzalo
 this morning found 850 mb maximum flight-level winds of 64 kt along
 with reliable SFMR surface winds near 55 kt in the northeastern
 quadrant, plus a central pressure of 992 mb. In addition, the
 Antigua-Barbuda Meteorological Service recently reported a sustained
 wind of 58 kt and a gust to 76 kt. Based on these data, the
 intensity has been increased to 55 kt. Reports from the aircraft
 radar and Antigua-Barbuda also indicate the center of Gonzalo passed
 over Antigua between 1300-1400 UTC.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 290/9 kt. Gonzalo is expected to
 continue to move west-northwestward today, and turn toward the
 northwest after 24 hours when the cyclone clears the northern Lesser
 Antilles. After that, the mid-level ridge to the north of Gonzalo is
 expected to break down as a strong mid-latitude trough moving off of
 the U.S. east and southeast coasts approaches the area north of
 Puerto Rico and Hispaniola in about 72 hours. The weakening ridge
 will allow Gonzalo to move slowly northward, and then turn toward
 the northeast and accelerate on Days 4 and 5. The latest NHC model
 guidance appears to have stabilized and has no longer made any
 eastward shifts, so the official forecast track is just an update of
 the previous advisory track, which lies close to a blend of the GFEX
 and TVCN consensus models.
 
 The satellite presentation of Gonzalo has continued to improve, and
 radar data from Guadeloupe indicates that a small but intense vortex
 may have passed over Antigua earlier this morning. Overall, the
 improvement in the horizontal and vertical structure of Gonzalo the
 past several hours, along with weak vertical wind shear and SSTs
 greater than 29C, should allow for at least steady strengthening of
 the cyclone through the next 96 hours. By 120 hours, southwesterly
 wind shear of around 20 kt is expected to affect Gonzalo, which
 should induce a slow weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is
 similar to the previous forecast and the SHIPS intensity model.
 
 Gonzalo is forecast to be reaching hurricane strength by the time it
 passes near the British Virgin Islands, and so a hurricane warning
 is in effect there.  Although hurricane conditions are not currently
 expected in the U.S. Virgin Islands, only a slight deviation to the
 left of the forecast track, or a more rapid strengthening of the
 storm, would result in the need to extend the hurricane warning into
 those areas. Interests in the hurricane watch area are reminded that
 the watch means that hurricane conditions are possible...and in this
 case within 24 hours.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  13/1500Z 17.2N  61.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  14/0000Z 18.0N  63.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  14/1200Z 19.4N  65.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  15/0000Z 20.8N  66.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
  48H  15/1200Z 22.4N  67.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
  72H  16/1200Z 24.8N  68.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
  96H  17/1200Z 27.4N  66.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 120H  18/1200Z 31.7N  64.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart
 
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for GONZALO

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: , 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman