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 708 
 WTNT43 KNHC 130900
 TCDAT3
 
 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
 500 AM AST MON OCT 13 2014
 
 The satellite presentation of Gonzalo has gradually improved
 overnight with increased banding features seen in both infrared
 satellite images and Guadeloupe radar.  The small inner core has
 also become a little better defined in the radar imagery.  Dvorak
 data T-numbers from SAB and TAFB are 3.0 and 3.5, respectively, and
 the initial wind speed has been increased to 50 kt. An Air Force
 Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
 cyclone in a few hours, which should provide a better assessment of
 Gonzalo's intensity and size.  Although some mid-level dry air is
 noted to the west of the cyclone, low shear and warm water should
 favor strengthening during the next several days.  The NHC intensity
 forecast calls for steady intensification and Gonzalo is forecast to
 become a hurricane in 24 to 36 hours. The updated intensity forecast
 is close to the SHIPS model and is very similar to the previous
 advisory.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 280/9 kt.  Gonzalo is forecast to
 turn west-northwestward, then northwestward during the next day or
 so, while it moves around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level
 ridge over the central subtropical Atlantic.  Most of the track
 guidance has again shifted slightly eastward during the first 48
 hours, and the NHC forecast track has been nudged in that direction.
 The NHC forecast is along the southern edge of the guidance envelope
 during the first couple of days and is close to the GFS and ECMWF
 models.  After that time, Gonzalo is forecast to turn northward
 then north-northeastward ahead of a deep-layer trough that
 approaches the east coast of the United States in about 4 days.
 Although the track guidance is in general agreement on this
 scenario, there remains large differences in the forward speed
 of the cyclone later in the period.  The GFS, UKMET, and HWRF
 showing more north-northeastward acceleration than the ECMWF.  The
 updated NHC track forecast is near the GFS/ECMWF consensus, which
 is faster than the previous advisory.
 
 
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  13/0900Z 16.8N  60.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  13/1800Z 17.4N  62.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  14/0600Z 18.6N  64.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  14/1800Z 20.2N  65.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  15/0600Z 21.5N  67.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  72H  16/0600Z 23.8N  68.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
  96H  17/0600Z 26.0N  67.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 120H  18/0600Z 29.0N  65.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown
 
 
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It was last modified on: , 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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