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 225 
 WTNT23 KNHC 122031
 TCMAT3
 
 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
 2100 UTC SUN OCT 12 2014
 
 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
 A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
 PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
 
 THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
 AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
 
 SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
 A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
 * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
 
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 * GUADELOUPE
 * DESIRADE
 * LES SAINTES
 * MARIE GALANTE
 * ST. MARTIN
 * ST. BARTHELEMY
 * ST. MAARTIN
 * SABA
 * ST. EUSTATIUS
 * BARBUDA
 * ANTIGUA
 * ANGUILLA
 * ST. KITTS
 * NEVIS
 * MONTSERRAT
 * PUERTO RICO
 * VIEQUES
 * CULEBRA
 * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
 * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
 
 A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
 WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
 BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
 WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
 DANGEROUS.
 
 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
 EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
 THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N  59.5W AT 12/2100Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
 34 KT....... 50NE  40SE   0SW  50NW.
 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N  59.5W AT 12/2100Z
 AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N  59.0W
 
 FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.5N  61.1W
 MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 34 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.9N  63.1W
 MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 50 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  20NW.
 34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.9N  65.0W
 MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
 34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.0N  66.4W
 MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
 34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.9N  67.9W
 MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
 34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
 
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
 OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 22.6N  68.3W
 MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
 OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 24.5N  68.0W
 MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
 
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N  59.5W
 
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z
 
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
 
 
 226 
 WTNT22 KNHC 122031
 TCMAT2
 
 HURRICANE FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072014
 2100 UTC SUN OCT 12 2014
 
 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N  60.7W AT 12/2100Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  70 DEGREES AT  22 KT
 
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
 64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
 50 KT....... 50NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
 12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 240SW 180NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N  60.7W AT 12/2100Z
 AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N  61.9W
 
 FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 35.6N  56.0W
 MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 50 KT... 50NE  90SE  70SW  60NW.
 34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 130NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 36.0N  50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 50 KT... 30NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
 34 KT...150NE 190SE 200SW 240NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 35.0N  43.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 34 KT...130NE 190SE 150SW 190NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 33.5N  40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 34 KT...  0NE  90SE 120SW 160NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.7N  60.7W
 
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z
 
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
 
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It was last modified on: , 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
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