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 897 
 WTNT43 KNHC 122054
 TCDAT3
 
 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
 500 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014
 
 The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Gonzalo
 this afternoon has found found 850-mb maximum flight-level winds of
 47 kt in the northeastern quadrant along with reliable SFMR surface
 winds of 39-41 kt. The aircraft also measured a central pressure of
 1003-1004 mb and on-board radar indicated that a primitive eye with
 a diameter of 10 n mi was developing. Based on these data, the
 initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt, which could be a
 little conservative.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 270/10 kt based on reconnaissance
 data. There is no significant change to the previous track forecast
 or reasoning. A strong deep-layer ridge to the north of Gonzalo
 should keep the cyclone moving westward at around 10 kt for the next
 24 hours, followed by a gradual turn to the west-northwest by 36
 hours. By 72 hours, a strong mid-latitude trough is expected to move
 off of the U.S. east coast and act to erode the ridge to the north
 of Hispaniola, allowing Gonzalo to move slowly northwestward to
 northward into the weakness in the ridge. The NHC model guidance is
 in general agreement on this developing track scenario, but there is
 considerable spread in the model tracks after 36 hours. The GFS and
 the regional models keep Gonzalo weak until after 48 hours, and take
 the system well to the east of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
 In contrast, the ECMWF and the UKMET show a vertically deep and more
 robust tropical cyclone moving more westward in deep-layer easterly
 steering flow. Since the official forecast calls for Gonzalo to
 become a hurricane within 48 hours, the NHC forecast track lies near
 the extreme western edge of the model envelope and close to the more
 robust ECMWF model solution.
 
 The combination of the small size of Gonzalo, its precursor eye
 feature, low vertical wind shear conditions, SSTs at least 29C, and
 colder than normal upper-tropospheric temperatures support at least
 a normal rate of intensification throughout the forecast period.
 Although occasional intrusions of dry mid-level air could briefly
 disrupt the strengthening process, those occurrences should
 generally be short-lived due to the strong instability conditions
 that will be present. In fact, rapid intensification is a very
 distinct possibility, especially if the aforementioned eye feature
 continues to develop. The NHC intensity forecast is higher then the
 consensus models and follows the a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM
 models.
 
 NOTE: Data from the reconnaissance aircraft has been received by the
 NHC, but telecommunications problems continue to prevent the
 dissemination of these data.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  12/2100Z 16.4N  59.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  13/0600Z 16.5N  61.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  13/1800Z 16.9N  63.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  14/0600Z 17.9N  65.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  14/1800Z 19.0N  66.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  15/1800Z 20.9N  67.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
  96H  16/1800Z 22.6N  68.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 120H  17/1800Z 24.5N  68.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart
 
 
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