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 265 
 WTNT43 KNHC 121755
 TCDAT3
 
 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014
 130 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014
 
 An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the low
 pressure system east of the Leeward islands found SFMR surface
 winds of tropical storm force, and based on this information the
 low has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Gonzalo.
 
 The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 270/09 kt. Due to a
 strong ridge to the north of Gonzalo, the cyclone is expected to
 move generally westward at around 10 kt for the next 24 hours or so,
 followed by a gradual turn to the west-northwest in the 36-72 hour
 time frame. After that time, a deep-layer trough moving off of
 the U.S. east coast is expected to erode the ridge, causing Gonzalo
 to move slowly northwestward to northward. The NHC track forecast
 closely follows the consensus model TVCN.
 
 The small size of Gonzalo, combined with low shear conditions less
 than 10 kt and SSTs of at least 29C, argue for at least steady
 strengthening throughout the forecast period. There will likely be
 occasional intrusions of dry mid-level air that may briefly slow
 the intensification process, but those occurrences should generally
 be short-lived. The intensity forecast closely follows the SHIPS
 intensity model.
 
 NOTE: Data from the reconnaissance aircraft has been received by the
 NHC, but telecommunications problems are preventing the
 dissemination of these data.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  12/1730Z 16.4N  58.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  13/0000Z 16.4N  59.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  13/1200Z 16.5N  61.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  14/0000Z 17.2N  63.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  14/1200Z 18.2N  65.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  15/1200Z 20.5N  67.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  96H  16/1200Z 22.0N  68.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 120H  17/1200Z 24.0N  68.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart
 
 
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