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 256 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 291441
 TCDEP3
 
 Tropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number  12
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082018
 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 29 2018
 
 Gilma is on its way in becoming a remnant low.  Very strong
 west-northwesterly shear has pushed all of the associated convection
 well away from the center, leaving a completely exposed low-level
 swirl.  The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, in agreement with a
 blend of the Dvorak Final T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.  Now
 that Gilma is located to the west of an upper-level trough axis,
 strong west-northwesterly shear is expected to continue.  These
 hostile winds aloft, plus marginal SSTs and dry air, should cause
 Gilma to become a remnant low later today and ultimately degenerate
 into a trough in 2 to 3 days.
 
 The depression is moving westward at 12 kt, steered by the flow on
 the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge.  This general motion
 with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected until the
 system dissipates.  Little change was made to the previous NHC
 track forecast, and this one lies near the middle of the guidance
 envelope.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  29/1500Z 15.9N 138.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  30/0000Z 16.0N 140.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  30/1200Z 15.9N 142.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  31/0000Z 15.7N 144.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  31/1200Z 15.5N 147.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 
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