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 882 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 290235
 TCDEP3
 
 Tropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number  10
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082018
 800 PM PDT Sat Jul 28 2018
 
 Gilma's structure has not changed much over the past six hours.
 Deep convection remains limited to small, but frequent, bursts just
 east of the depression's exposed low-level center.  The initial
 intensity has been held at 30 kt, based primarily on continuity, but
 this is also supported by the most recent Dvorak classification from
 TAFB.  No change has been made to the official intensity forecast.
 The wind shear, as measured in SHIPS diagnostic data from the GFS
 and ECMWF, is already over 30 kt and is forecast to continue
 increasing over the next day or two.  In addition, the tropical
 cyclone will be moving through a progressively drier environment
 during the next couple of days, which should also contribute to the
 suppression of deep convection.  Gilma is therefore still forecast
 to become a remnant low tomorrow, and then dissipate entirely by
 early next week.
 
 The depression is moving a little quicker than previously
 anticipated, and the initial motion estimate is 285/12.  Aside from
 the faster initial speed, there is no change to the reasoning
 behind the track forecast.  Gilma is still expected to turn back
 toward the west and slow its forward speed for the next
 couple of days while being steered primarily by the low-level flow
 associated with the subtropical ridge to the north.  The NHC track
 forecast is very close to the various consensus models, and minimal
 changes were made from the previous advisory.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  29/0300Z 16.1N 135.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  29/1200Z 16.3N 137.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  30/0000Z 16.4N 139.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  30/1200Z 16.3N 141.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  31/0000Z 16.1N 143.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Zelinsky
 
 
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