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 372 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 282032
 TCDEP3
 
 Tropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number   9
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082018
 200 PM PDT Sat Jul 28 2018
 
 Increasing westerly shear is taking its toll on Gilma.  Deep
 convection that has been persisting on the eastern side of the
 system has become farther separated from the center, with an exposed
 low-level swirl centered more than 75 n mi from the edge of
 the convection.  Although the system appears to be a little weaker
 than earlier today, there is no scatterometer data to confirm that.
 Therefore, the initial wind speed has been held at 30 kt, in
 agreement with the Dvorak classifications of 2.0/30 kt from both
 TAFB and SAB.
 
 Westerly shear of about 30 to 35 kt is expected to continue during
 the next few days, and the global models indicate that the
 upper-level flow should become less diffluent as Gilma passes west
 of the axis of an upper-level trough tonight.  The combination of
 these hostile winds aloft, cooler SSTs, and a more stable air mass
 should cause Gilma to gradually weaken, and the NHC forecast
 now shows Gilma becoming a remnant low in about 24 hours and
 degenerating into a trough by day 4.  Gilma could become a remnant
 low even sooner than currently forecast, as the unfavorable
 upper-level flow to the west of the upper trough axis could
 completely shear off the deep convection from the center.
 
 The depression made a jog to the northwest during the day today,
 but it is expected to resume a west to west-northwestward motion
 at around 10 kt through tonight, steered by mid-level ridging
 to the north.  Thereafter, as the system becomes increasingly
 shallow, it should turn to the west, steered by low-level ridging to
 its northwest. The NHC forecast track is very close to the previous
 forecast, and it is close to the clustering of the consensus aids.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  28/2100Z 15.8N 134.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  29/0600Z 16.0N 135.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  29/1800Z 16.3N 137.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  30/0600Z 16.3N 139.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  30/1800Z 16.1N 141.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  31/1800Z 15.7N 145.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto
 
 
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