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 708 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 281432
 TCDEP3
 
 Tropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number   8
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082018
 800 AM PDT Sat Jul 28 2018
 
 Despite being in an environment of strong westerly shear, Gilma is
 maintaining its status as a tropical cyclone.  Deep convection has
 been persisting on the eastern side of the system, and this
 activity has even moved a little closer to the center, aided by
 upper-level diffluence.  The initial wind speed is held at 30 kt,
 in agreement with the Dvorak classifications of 2.0/30 kt from TAFB
 and SAB.  This intensity estimate is a little lower than the 2.5/35
 kt ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin.
 
 Westerly shear of about 30 kt is likely to continue during the
 next few days, and the global models indicate that the upper-level
 flow should become less diffluent as Gilma approaches the Central
 Pacific basin.  These hostile winds aloft combined with cooler
 SSTs and a more stable air mass should cause Gilma to gradually
 weaken during the next few days.  The NHC forecast continues to show
 Gilma becoming a remnant low in about 36 hours and degenerating into
 a trough by day 4, following the trend in the model guidance.
 
 The depression is moving westward at 10 kt steered by the flow on
 the south side of a mid-level ridge.  A west to west-northwest
 motion is expected during the next few days as the increasingly
 shallow system moves within the low- to mid-level flow.  The NHC
 track forecast is a little south of the previous one to come
 into better agreement with the latest consensus aids.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  28/1500Z 15.2N 133.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  29/0000Z 15.4N 134.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  29/1200Z 15.7N 136.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
  36H  30/0000Z 15.8N 137.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  30/1200Z 15.7N 140.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  31/1200Z 15.4N 144.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 
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