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 640 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 280835
 TCDEP3
 
 Tropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number   7
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082018
 200 AM PDT Sat Jul 28 2018
 
 Gilma continues to be affected by strong westerly vertical shear,
 with the low level center remaining exposed to the northwest of an
 area of weakly banded convection.  Satellite intensity estimates
 are in the 25-35 kt range, so the initial intensity remains a
 possibly generous 30 kt.
 
 The initial motion is 280/11.  The low- to mid-level subtropical
 ridge to the north of the cyclone should continue steering the
 cyclone generally westward to west-northwestward for the next three
 days with some decrease in forward speed.  The new track forecast
 is similar to the previous forecast and lies a little to the north
 of the center of the guidance envelope and the various consensus
 models.
 
 The ongoing shear is due to an upper-level trough just to the west
 and northwest of the tropical cyclone.  The dynamical models suggest
 that this trough will move westward in close proximity to Gilma,
 which will allow the shear to continue.  In addition, the cyclone
 should be moving into a drier airmass during the next several days.
 These factors should cause Gilma to weaken and eventually dissipate
 during the forecast period even though it will stay over warm
 water.  The new intensity forecast is mostly an update of the
 previous forecast, and it now calls for Gilma to decay to a remnant
 low by 36 h and dissipate completely after 72 h.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  28/0900Z 15.1N 132.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  28/1800Z 15.4N 133.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
  24H  29/0600Z 16.0N 135.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
  36H  29/1800Z 16.3N 137.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  30/0600Z 16.4N 139.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  31/0600Z 16.5N 143.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven
 
 
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