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 023 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 280236
 TCDEP3
 
 Tropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number   6
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082018
 800 PM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018
 
 The satellite presentation of Gilma has not changed much over the
 past several hours.  Strong west-northwesterly shear continues to
 affect tropical cyclone, and deep convection is limited to the
 southeast quadrant of the otherwise exposed low-level circulation.
 The initial intensity has been held at 30 kt based on earlier ASCAT
 data, but recent Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB
 suggest this could be generous.
 
 Virtually no change has been made to the track or intensity
 forecasts.  All of the dynamical models indicate that the shear
 affecting Gilma will increase through the next several days, and
 the cyclone will be moving into a drier environment.  Continued
 weakening is therefore still forecast, in line with all of the
 intensity guidance.  While the NHC forecast currently shows that
 Gilma will be a closed low through 72 hours, it is entirely possible
 that Gilma will dissipate sooner than currently indicated due to
 the hostile environment.
 
 As expected, Gilma has slowed slightly and the initial
 motion estimate is now 280/13 kt.  A continued west to
 west-northwest heading with a decrease in forward speed is still
 forecast for the next few days while the shallow depression is
 steered primarily by the low-level flow associated with the
 subtropical high to the north-northeast.  The NHC forecast remains
 in close agreement with the various track consensus models.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  28/0300Z 15.0N 131.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  28/1200Z 15.2N 132.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  29/0000Z 15.7N 134.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
  36H  29/1200Z 16.2N 136.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
  48H  30/0000Z 16.5N 138.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  31/0000Z 16.5N 142.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Zelinsky
 
 
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