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 797 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 272032
 TCDEP3
 
 Tropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number   5
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082018
 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018
 
 Gilma is feeling the effects of northwesterly shear.  During the
 past several hours, the center of the system has been exposed at
 times with much of the convective activity being displaced to the
 southeast of the center.  The initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt
 based on a very recent ASCAT pass and the latest Dvorak estimates.
 This makes Gilma a tropical depression.  Although Gilma is expected
 to be over relatively warm SSTs during the next couple of days, the
 northwesterly shear is forecast to become even more hostile.
 Therefore, continued weakening is anticipated, and Gilma is now
 forecast to become a remnant low by 48 hours when the shear is
 expected to be in excess of 30 kt.  The remnant low is predicted to
 open into a trough by day 4 as shown by many of the global models.
 
 The depression is moving westward at 15 kt steered by the flow on
 the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge.  A west to
 west-northwest motion at a slower forward speed is expected during
 the next few days as the weak and increasingly shallow system is
 steered by the low-level flow.  The NHC track forecast is slightly
 south of the previous one to come into better agreement with the
 latest consensus models.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  27/2100Z 14.7N 129.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  28/0600Z 14.8N 131.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  28/1800Z 15.3N 133.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
  36H  29/0600Z 15.8N 135.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
  48H  29/1800Z 16.5N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  30/1800Z 17.0N 140.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi/Avila
 
 
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