Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 582 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 271432
 TCDEP3
 
 Tropical Storm Gilma Discussion Number   4
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082018
 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018
 
 Northwesterly shear has disrupted the already poorly organized
 cloud pattern associated with Gilma. The center is now exposed and
 located on the northwestern edge of the convection, and T-numbers
 are only 2.0 on the Dvorak scale. Earlier ASCAT data supported
 tropical storm strength, however, given that no new ASCAT
 information is available, the initial intensity is kept at 35 kt in
 this advisory. Gilma could maintain its current strength until
 stronger westerly shear becomes established over the cyclone. Shear
 and cooler waters will induce weakening, and Gilma is expected to
 become a remnant low in 3 days or earlier. Dissipation is
 expected therafter. The official forecast follows the intensity
 consensus trend.
 
 Gilma is moving toward the west or 280 degrees at 12 kt. The
 cyclone is on the southwest side of a strong subtropical ridge.
 This steering flow pattern is forecast to persist, so no change in
 track is anticipated. The NHC forecast is located between the HFIP
 HCCA model and the simple track consensus.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  27/1500Z 14.9N 128.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  28/0000Z 15.0N 130.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  28/1200Z 15.2N 132.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  29/0000Z 16.0N 134.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  29/1200Z 16.7N 135.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  30/1200Z 17.5N 140.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  31/1200Z 17.5N 144.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila
 
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for GILMA

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman