Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 926 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 270831
 TCDEP3
 
 Tropical Storm Gilma Discussion Number   3
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082018
 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018
 
 The cloud pattern associated with the cyclone has lost organization
 during the past several hours, with the low-level center now located
 at the northern edge of a smaller area of convection.  Despite the
 ragged appearance in satellite imagery, recent ASCAT-A data showed
 an area of 35 kt winds to the northeast of the center.  Based on
 this, the cyclone has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Gilma.
 
 The initial motion is 285/14.  Gilma should be steered westward to
 west-northwestward along the southwestern flank of a large mid-level
 ridge extending westward from the southwestern United States.  As
 the cyclone decays to a shallow remnant low late in the period, a
 more westward motion is expected.  The new track forecast is
 similar to, but a little faster than the previous forecast, and it
 is a blend of the previous forecast and the multi-model consensus
 aids.
 
 Gilma is located just to the east of an upper-level trough, which
 the large-scale models forecast to move or re-form westward just
 ahead of the storm for the next couple of days.  This evolution is
 expected to keep the cyclone in an area of moderate vertical wind
 shear, but with some upper-level divergence to maintain convection.
 Based on this, the intensity forecast shows a little more
 strengthening in agreement with the overall trend of the intensity
 guidance.  After 36-48 h, Gilma is likely to move into strong and
 dry northwesterly upper-level flow west of the upper-level trough
 axis, which should lead to weakening and eventual dissipation.  The
 new intensity forecast now shows dissipation by 120 h in agreement
 with the dynamical models.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  27/0900Z 14.4N 126.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  27/1800Z 14.6N 128.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  28/0600Z 15.0N 130.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  28/1800Z 15.5N 132.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  29/0600Z 16.1N 134.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  72H  30/0600Z 17.5N 138.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  31/0600Z 17.5N 143.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven
 
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for GILMA

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman