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 015 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 270231
 TCDEP3
 
 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number   2
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082018
 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018
 
 The cloud pattern of the depression features a small area of central
 convection with cloud tops of -70 to -80C and a larger convective
 band to the west and northwest of the low-level center. The initial
 intensity remains 30 kt based on the previous ASCAT data and the
 latest Dvorak classification from SAB. The cyclone has an
 opportunity to strengthen during the next 36 hours or so while it
 moves through an environment of light-to-moderate westerly shear and
 SSTs of 27-28C. After that time the shear is forecast to increase
 and reach 30-40 kt by late in the forecast period. The combination
 of the shear and cooling SSTs should result in weakening. The global
 models show the low and mid-level circulations decoupling by 96
 hours, which should result in the cyclone becoming a remnant low.
 The new NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest IVCN intensity
 consensus.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 285/14 based on the latest
 geostationary and microwave satellite fixes. The track forecast
 remains unchanged, as the cyclone will be steered westward to
 west-northwestward along the southwestern flank of a large mid-level
 ridge centered over the southwestern United States. After the
 cyclone becomes a shallow remnant low late in the period, a westward
 motion is expected. The latest NHC track forecast is close to the
 previous one and is a bit south of the multi-model consensus aids
 and near a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  27/0300Z 13.8N 125.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  27/1200Z 14.1N 127.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  28/0000Z 14.5N 129.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  28/1200Z 15.0N 131.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  29/0000Z 15.7N 133.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  30/0000Z 17.0N 137.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  31/0000Z 17.5N 141.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  01/0000Z 17.5N 145.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan
 
 
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