Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 805 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 262045
 TCDEP3
  
 Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number   1
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082018
 200 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018
  
 A recent ASCAT pass indicated that a very small 30-kt circulation
 has developed in association with the disturbance that the NHC has
 been tracking southwest of Baja California Sur during the past
 several days. On this basis, advisories are initiated on Tropical
 Depression Eight.  However, the satellite presentation is not very
 well organized at this time, and Dvorak T-numbers are still low.
 Given the current environment of low shear and warm ocean, gradual
 strengthening is anticipated. However, global models indicate that
 the shear will markedly increase beyond 48 hours, and this wind
 pattern should result in weakening. The NHC forecast is a blend of
 HCCA and the simple intensity consensus.
  
 The depression is moving toward the west or west-northwest at 14 kt
 around the periphery of the strong subtropical ridge. Since the
 ridge is forecast to persist, no significant change in the steering
 flow is anticipated. The cyclone should then continue on the same
 track for the next several days, although by the end of the
 forecast period, the cyclone is forecast to become a westward
 moving remnant low. The NHC forecast is very close to the
 multi-model consensus.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  26/2100Z 13.2N 123.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  27/0600Z 13.7N 125.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  27/1800Z 14.0N 128.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  28/0600Z 14.5N 130.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  28/1800Z 15.0N 132.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  29/1800Z 16.5N 135.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  30/1800Z 17.0N 139.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  31/1800Z 17.0N 144.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 Forecaster Avila
  
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for GILMA

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman