273 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 101437
 TCDEP2
  
 TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072012
 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 10 2012
 
 DEEP CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER OF GILMA OVER THE LAST
 FEW HOURS...BUT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT
 MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. GILMA IS
 FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE COLDER WATER AND
 INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEGIN TO TAKE THEIR TOLL. GILMA IS
 FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY SATURDAY EVENING AND
 TO A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY MORNING AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH AN
 AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO ITS EAST. 
 
 GILMA HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WEST OF NORTH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/4 KT. GILMA IS FORECAST TO
 CONTINUE ON A NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT DAY
 OR SO AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH RETREATS EASTWARD. THE
 LATEST FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST EARLY IN THE
 FORECAST PERIOD BASED ON THE CURRENT MOTION. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
 REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THEREAFTER.  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  10/1500Z 18.8N 119.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  11/0000Z 19.4N 119.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  11/1200Z 20.1N 119.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  12/0000Z 20.6N 120.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  12/1200Z 21.1N 120.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
  72H  13/1200Z 21.7N 121.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER SCHAUER/BERG