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 542 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 090254
 TCDEP2
  
 HURRICANE GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072012
 800 PM PDT WED AUG 08 2012
  
 GILMA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.
 THE COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE EXPANDED AND
 THERE CONTINUES TO BE OCCASIONAL HINTS OF AN EYE IN VISIBLE AND
 SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGES. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 0000 UTC WERE
 77 KT AND 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. THE UW-CIMSS ADT
 VALUES ARE CONSIDERABLY LOWER...NEAR 50 KT. AN AVERAGE OF THESE
 ESTIMATES ARE THE BASIS FOR INCREASING GILMA TO A 65-KT HURRICANE. 
 THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE TONIGHT AS IT
 WILL REMAIN OVER WATER TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 26C AND IN A
 GENERALLY FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. STEADY WEAKENING IS
 ANTICIPATED BEYOND 12 HOURS AS GILMA MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY
 COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THE NHC INTENSITY
 FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
 THE LGEM GUIDANCE.
 
 THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 7 KT. THE DYNAMICAL
 MODELS INSIST THAT GILMA WILL SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE
 NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS.
 THIS CHANGE IN MOTION IS LIKELY DUE TO THE COMBINED INFLUENCES OF A
 MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST ALONG 130W LONGITUDE AND A
 WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST. A SLOW WESTWARD
 MOTION IS SHOWN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN GILMA IS
 EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE
 OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
 NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  09/0300Z 16.1N 118.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  09/1200Z 16.6N 119.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  10/0000Z 17.4N 120.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
  36H  10/1200Z 18.0N 120.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  11/0000Z 18.6N 121.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  12/0000Z 19.6N 122.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  13/0000Z 20.5N 122.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 120H  14/0000Z 20.5N 123.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
  
 
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