010 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 071513
 TCDEP2
  
 TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2...CORRECTED
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072012
 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 07 2012
 
 CORRECTED DEPRESSION TO STORM IN SECOND PARAGRAPH
 
 FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E
 HAS DEVELOPED A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND AN OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND
 IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 1200
 UTC WERE 30 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB.  BASED ON THE INCREASED
 ORGANIZATION SINCE THAT TIME...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO
 TROPICAL STORM GILMA.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 295/10.  THE STORM IS CURRENTLY
 BEING STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
 THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  IN THE
 SHORT-TERM...THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CURRENT MOTION TO CONTINUE.  IN
 THE LONGER TERM...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A LARGE AREA OF
 BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST
 FROM 72-120 HR...POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM
 ERNESTO OR ITS REMNANTS CROSSING MEXICO AND RE-DEVELOPING IN THE
 PACIFIC.  THE UKMET AND ECMWF SHOW GILMA TURNING EASTWARD IN
 RESPONSE TO THIS DEVELOPMENT...WHILE THE GFS AND NOGAPS SHOW A
 WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
 SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK IN SHOWING A DECELERATING WESTWARD
 MOTION FROM 72-120 HR.  THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH DURING THE
 FIRST 48 HR...THEN DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THAT.
 
 GILMA IS CURRENTLY OVER WATER OF ABOUT 29C AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
 LIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL
 WINDS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THE STORM IS FORECAST
 TO MOVE OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...REACHING WATERS
 OF 26C IN ABOUT 72 HR.  AFTER THAT...A COMBINATION OF INCREASING
 SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE STEADY
 WEAKENING.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
 FORECAST UP TO THE PEAK INTENSITY AT 72 HR...AND SHOWS A FASTER
 WEAKENING RATE AFTER THAT TIME. 
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  07/1500Z 14.8N 112.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  08/0000Z 15.5N 114.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  08/1200Z 16.3N 116.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  09/0000Z 17.0N 117.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  09/1200Z 17.3N 119.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  10/1200Z 17.5N 121.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  11/1200Z 17.5N 121.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 120H  12/1200Z 17.0N 121.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN