296 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 070850
 TCDEP2
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072012
 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 07 2012
  
 THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE MEXICAN COAST
 HAS CONTINUED TO GAIN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW
 HOURS.  ALTHOUGH THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SOMEWHAT
 SMALL...TAFB AND SAB WERE ABLE TO PROVIDE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0.
 THE LOW IS THEREFORE BEING UPGRADED TO A 30-KT DEPRESSION AT THIS
 TIME.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 295/10 KT.  THE DEPRESSION IS
 BEING STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
 PRESSURE THAT IS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND
 EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  THE RIDGE IS
 EXPECTED TO HOLD FIRM IN THE VICINITY OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE
 5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
 BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST
 ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 AND POTENTIALLY SLOW THE WESTWARD MOTION OF THE
 CYCLONE.  THE NHC FORECAST INDICATES A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
 MOVEMENT DURING THE FIRST 2 DAYS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A DECELERATING
 WESTWARD MOTION THEREAFTER.  CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST IS
 HIGH GIVEN THE LESS-THAN-NORMAL SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE.
  
 THE DEPRESSION IS OVER WATER OF ABOUT 29C AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
 LIGHT SHEAR.  A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA
 PENINSULA IS MOVING STEADILY WESTWARD...WHICH IS ALLOWING THE
 UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE DEPRESSION TO EXPAND WESTWARD. 
 ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE
 NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AT THE HIGHER END
 OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CYCLONE WILL BE
 LOCATED IN A MORE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...AND THE
 CIRCULATION COULD BECOME DECOUPLED WHEN THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
 TUGGED BACK TO THE EAST.  WEAKENING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED AT THE
 LATTER STAGES OF THE FORECAST.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  07/0900Z 14.3N 111.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  07/1800Z 14.9N 113.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  08/0600Z 15.7N 114.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  08/1800Z 16.5N 116.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  09/0600Z 17.0N 118.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  10/0600Z 17.0N 120.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  11/0600Z 17.0N 121.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  12/0600Z 17.0N 121.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BERG