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 650 
 FOPZ13 KNHC 020844
 PWSEP3
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6       
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082006               
 0900 UTC WED AUG 02 2006                                            
                                                                     
 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR   
 LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
 WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                     
 CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
    ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
    ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
    ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
 FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
     IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
         AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
    (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
         06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                     
 PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
 X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
 LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
    PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                     
 Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
    PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
    HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                     
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                     
 ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
  
 ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)   1(12)
 ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
  
                                                                     
   - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                     
                FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
   TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
 PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
              18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                     
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
  HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                     
  12 152N 1069W 34 18   5(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
  12 152N 1069W 50  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
  12 152N 1069W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
  
  24 157N 1082W 34  2  15(17)   4(21)   1(22)   X(22)   1(23)   X(23)
  24 157N 1082W 50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  24 157N 1082W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
  
  36 161N 1098W 34  X   4( 4)  11(15)   4(19)   1(20)   1(21)   X(21)
  36 161N 1098W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
  36 161N 1098W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
  
  48 166N 1114W 34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   5(18)   1(19)   X(19)
  48 166N 1114W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
  48 166N 1114W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
  
  
  72 175N 1140W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   7(10)   4(14)   1(15)
  72 175N 1140W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
  72 175N 1140W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
  
  
  96 190N 1165W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)
  96 190N 1165W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
  96 190N 1165W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
  
  
 120 205N 1195W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
 120 205N 1195W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 120 205N 1195W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
  
                - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
 FCST MAX WIND     30     30      30      30      30      30      30
 FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
  
                                                                     
 $$                                                                  
 FORECASTER BRENNAN/STEWART                                           
                                                                     
                                                                     
 
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