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 573 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 012032
 TCDEP3
 TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082006
 200 PM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006
  
 VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF
 GILMA IS NOW EXPOSED EAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION DUE TO EASTERLY
 VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION REMAINS QUITE
 VIGOROUS WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -80C.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
 FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE 35 KT...SO THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY.
 
 THE EXPOSED CENTER AND PREVIOUS MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE
 MOTION IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...310/7.  WATER
 VAPOR IMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE MODEL ANALYSES INDICATE BROAD
 DEEP-LAYER TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES NORTH
 OF 30N...MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA
 CALIFORNIA...AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OR TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
 MEXICO.  THE WEST COAST TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SOUTHWARD BY
 72-120 HR.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS GENERALLY RESPOND TO THIS PATTERN
 EVOLUTION BY KEEPING ENOUGH RIDGING NORTH OF GILMA TO MOVE IT
 WESTWARD THROUGH 120 HR.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE BAM MODELS...
 LBAR...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE CALL FOR A NORTHWESTWARD TURN
 AFTER 72 HR.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS INITIALIZED GILMA RATHER
 POORLY...EXCEPT THE UKMET WHICH TRACKS THE STORM NORTHWESTWARD
 UNTIL DISSIPATION.  ADDITIONALLY...THE OTHER GUIDANCE DOES NOT SEEM
 TO REFLECT THE CURRENT MOTION VERY WELL.  SO...THE NEW FORECAST
 TRACK IS SHIFTED NORTHWARD FOR THE FIRST 36-48 HR TO REFLECT THE
 CURRENT MOTION...AND SHIFTED SOMEWHAT SOUTHWARD AFTER 96 HR TO
 REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL NOT DEEPEN
 FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD TO STRONGLY TURN GILMA.
 
 LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT GILMA WILL REMAIN IN EASTERLY SHEAR
 THROUGH 36-48 HR...WHICH WILL AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION.  THE
 SHEAR DECREASES SOMEWHAT AFTER THAT TIME...BUT THE SEA SURFACE
 TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK START DECREASING ABOUT THAT
 TIME.  BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SLOW
 STRENGTHENING UNTIL 48 HR...AND SLOW WEAKENING THEREAFTER.  THE
 INTENSITY FORECAST IS STRONGER THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE...SO GILMA
 COULD STRENGTHEN LESS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      01/2100Z 14.4N 105.6W    35 KT
  12HR VT     02/0600Z 15.0N 106.5W    35 KT
  24HR VT     02/1800Z 15.3N 107.9W    40 KT
  36HR VT     03/0600Z 15.7N 109.5W    45 KT
  48HR VT     03/1800Z 16.0N 111.2W    50 KT
  72HR VT     04/1800Z 17.0N 114.5W    45 KT
  96HR VT     05/1800Z 18.5N 117.5W    40 KT
 120HR VT     06/1800Z 21.0N 119.5W    35 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
 
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