156
FOPZ13 KNHC 011437
PWSEP3
TROPICAL STORM GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082006
1500 UTC TUE AUG 01 2006
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) 1(19)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 144N 1065W 34 48 4(52) 1(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54)
12 144N 1065W 50 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
12 144N 1065W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
24 151N 1078W 34 3 30(33) 9(42) 3(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46)
24 151N 1078W 50 X 6( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
24 151N 1078W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
36 155N 1092W 34 X 9( 9) 23(32) 8(40) 3(43) X(43) 1(44)
36 155N 1092W 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11)
36 155N 1092W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
48 157N 1109W 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 18(28) 9(37) 1(38) X(38)
48 157N 1109W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12)
48 157N 1109W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
72 166N 1140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 7(27) 2(29)
72 166N 1140W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8)
72 166N 1140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
96 180N 1170W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 3(17)
96 180N 1170W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
96 180N 1170W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
120 210N 1195W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
120 210N 1195W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
120 210N 1195W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35 40 45 50 45 45 40
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
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