004
WTPZ45 KNHC 020845
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102007
200 AM PDT SUN SEP 02 2007
AN EARLIER SSMI MICROWAVE OVERPASS AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY SMALL IN
COVERAGE...CONTINUES TO INTERMITTENTLY BURST OVER THE CIRCULATION
CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO 25 KT AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT. COOLER WATERS SHOULD INDUCE
A WEAKENING CAUSING GIL TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS...FINALLY DISSIPATING IN 3 DAYS.
THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS A PERSISTENT 285/8...AND THE CYCLONE
SHOULD CONTINUE IN THIS GENERAL MOTION WITHIN THE DEEP EASTERLIES
UNTIL DISSIPATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/0900Z 19.5N 123.2W 25 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 19.8N 124.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 03/0600Z 20.2N 126.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 03/1800Z 20.5N 127.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 04/0600Z 20.5N 129.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 05/0600Z 20.5N 133.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB
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