054 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 020304
 TCDEP5
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102007
 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 01 2007
 
 CONVECTION FLARED UP NEAR AND WEST OF THE CENTER OF GIL THIS
 EVENING...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BEING COVERED BY THE OVERCAST
 FOR A WHILE.  THE LATEST IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD TOPS ARE
 STARTING TO WARM...SUGGESTING THAT THE CONVECTIVE BURST MAY BE
 ENDING.  WHILE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO
 30 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 25 KT PENDING EITHER
 PERSISTENT OF THE CONVECTION OR OTHER DATA SHOWING ACTUAL
 INTENSIFICATION.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/8.  GIL IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP
 LAYER RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY WITH TIME.  THIS WILL
 KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD UNTIL
 DISSIPATION.
 
 THE LONGER-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED.  GIL IS MOVING OVER
 COLDER WATERS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A REMNANT
 LOW IN 12-24 HR...WITH FINAL DISSIPATION IN 72 HR OR SO. 
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      02/0300Z 19.3N 122.4W    25 KT
  12HR VT     02/1200Z 19.6N 123.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  24HR VT     03/0000Z 20.0N 125.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     03/1200Z 20.2N 126.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     04/0000Z 20.4N 128.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     05/0000Z 20.5N 130.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN