507 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 011424
 TCDEP5
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102007
 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 01 2007
  
 GIL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SPORADIC CONVECTION THAT BARELY MEETS THE
 REQUIREMENTS FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  OVERALL...IT SEEMS LIKE THE
 CIRCULATION HAS WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND THIS THINKING IS IN
 LINE WITH DECREASING DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES.  THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT.  A SLOW DECREASE IN STRENGTH IS
 LIKELY AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.  GIL SHOULD BECOME
 A REMNANT LOW TOMORROW...IF NOT SOONER.
 
 THE CYCLONE IS MOVING A LITTLE NORTH OF WEST NOW...280/8. WEAK
 RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF GIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
 DAY AND FORCE A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE TRACK IS
 VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION
 OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      01/1500Z 18.8N 120.7W    25 KT
  12HR VT     02/0000Z 19.0N 121.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  24HR VT     02/1200Z 19.3N 123.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     03/0000Z 19.6N 125.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     03/1200Z 19.9N 127.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     04/1200Z 20.5N 130.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     05/1200Z 20.5N 134.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE