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 244 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 300857
 TCDEP5
 TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102007
 200 AM PDT THU AUG 30 2007
  
 THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GIL HAS BEEN RATHER 
 DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS MORNING.  BASED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
 IMAGERY AS WELL AS A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE PASSES FROM SSMI AND
 AMSU-B...THE CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTH-
 EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION WHICH CONTAINS CLOUD
 TOPS AROUND -80C.  BOTH TAFB AND SAB DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
 REMAIN AT 35 KT AND SO DOES THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  
 
 GIL IS CURRENTLY UNDER ABOUT 20 KNOTS OF EASTERLY SHEAR...WHICH IS
 FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  WHILE SEA SURFACE
 TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WARM BETWEEN 26C
 AND 27C...MODERATE SHEAR COMBINED WITH A RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS
 SHOULD INHIBIT MUCH STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
 IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS...AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...
 GFDL...AND HWRF GUIDANCE. 
 
 GIL CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 270/11.  A STRONG MID-
 TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
 SHOULD STEER GIL ON A WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AS
 THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND THE RIDGE BECOMES ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO
 SOUTHWEST...GIL SHOULD BE STEERED TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.  THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS AND FOLLOWS
 CLOSELY WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      30/0900Z 19.4N 113.0W    35 KT
  12HR VT     30/1800Z 19.4N 114.6W    40 KT
  24HR VT     31/0600Z 19.4N 116.8W    35 KT
  36HR VT     31/1800Z 19.2N 119.0W    30 KT
  48HR VT     01/0600Z 18.9N 121.0W    30 KT
  72HR VT     02/0600Z 18.5N 125.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     03/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER MAINELLI
  
 
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