603
WTPZ43 KNHC 241432
TCDEP3
HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082016
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 24 2016
The coverage of cold convective tops has increased over the past
few hours and a 0921Z GPM pass and 0935Z AMSR pass showed that the
center of Georgette was near the middle of the CDO feature. Based
on the improved convective organization, the initial intensity has
been set to 75 kt, which is close to the latest Dvorak estimates
from SAB and UW-CIMSS. The hurricane has an opportunity to
strengthen a bit more in the short term before SSTs cool below 26C
by 24 hours. After that time, slow weakening should begin and
continue through the rest of the forecast period. The NHC intensity
forecast is close to SHIPS model at 12 h and near the LGEM
thereafter. In about 4 days, Georgette should become a post-
tropical cyclone over SSTs of 22-23C in a dry and stable
environment.
The initial motion estimate is 295/09 based on the latest
geostationary and microwave fixes. A mid-level anticyclone centered
north of Georgette will gradually weaken during the next 72 hours,
which will cause the tropical cyclone to turn northwestward and
slow down. By the end of the period, the shallow post-tropical
Georgette should accelerate back toward the west-northwest in the
low-level trade wind flow. The new NHC track is a little to the
right of the previous one and is close to the latest TVCN consensus
aid.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 15.1N 124.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 15.7N 125.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 16.6N 127.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 17.4N 127.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 18.1N 128.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 19.9N 130.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 22.0N 133.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 29/1200Z 23.0N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Brennan
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