Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 603 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 241432
 TCDEP3
 
 HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016
 800 AM PDT SUN JUL 24 2016
 
 The coverage of cold convective tops has increased over the past
 few hours and a 0921Z GPM pass and 0935Z AMSR pass showed that the
 center of Georgette was near the middle of the CDO feature.  Based
 on the improved convective organization, the initial intensity has
 been set to 75 kt, which is close to the latest Dvorak estimates
 from SAB and UW-CIMSS.  The hurricane has an opportunity to
 strengthen a bit more in the short term before SSTs cool below 26C
 by 24 hours.  After that time, slow weakening should begin and
 continue through the rest of the forecast period.  The NHC intensity
 forecast is close to SHIPS model at 12 h and near the LGEM
 thereafter.  In about 4 days, Georgette should become a post-
 tropical cyclone over SSTs of 22-23C in a dry and stable
 environment.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 295/09 based on the latest
 geostationary and microwave fixes.  A mid-level anticyclone centered
 north of Georgette will gradually weaken during the next 72 hours,
 which will cause the tropical cyclone to turn northwestward and
 slow down.  By the end of the period, the shallow post-tropical
 Georgette should accelerate back toward the west-northwest in the
 low-level trade wind flow.  The new NHC track is a little to the
 right of the previous one and is close to the latest TVCN consensus
 aid.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  24/1500Z 15.1N 124.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
  12H  25/0000Z 15.7N 125.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
  24H  25/1200Z 16.6N 127.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  26/0000Z 17.4N 127.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  26/1200Z 18.1N 128.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
  72H  27/1200Z 19.9N 130.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
  96H  28/1200Z 22.0N 133.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 120H  29/1200Z 23.0N 138.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan
 
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for GEORGETTE

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman