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 819 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 221456
 TCDEP3
 
 TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016
 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016
 
 The satellite presentation of the cyclone has improved during the
 past few hours, with an increase in deep convection in a developing
 CDO and a large but fractured convective band in the western
 semicircle.  The initial intensity is set to 40 kt based on
 a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates of 45 kt from TAFB and 35 kt
 from SAB.  A 0931Z GPM pass showed that some inner-core structure
 has developed, but moderate easterly shear is forecast to persist
 for the next couple of days.  This envirionment should allow for
 steady strengthening while the storm moves over SSTs above 28C.
 SSTs cool below 26C after 72 hours, which suggests slow weakening
 late in the period.  The new NHC intensity forecast has been
 adjusted upward given the initial intensity but keeps the same peak
 intensity.  This forecast is above the intensity consensus and near
 the latest SHIPS and LGEM predictions through 5 days.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 295/11 and Georgette should be
 steered west-northwestward by the east Pacific subtropical ridge for
 the next 2 to 3 days.  Later in the forecast period the ridge shifts
 westward, which should cause a decrease in forward speed and a bend
 in the track toward the northwest.  The track model guidance is in
 generally good agreement on this scenario.  The new NHC track
 forecast is along the previous one but is a little faster, and is
 close to the latest multi-model consensus.
 
 The formation of Georgette as the seventh named storm in the basin
 this month ties the July record for the most named storm formations,
 which was set in 1985.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  22/1500Z 12.3N 117.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  23/0000Z 12.9N 118.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  23/1200Z 13.5N 120.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  24/0000Z 14.0N 122.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  24/1200Z 14.7N 123.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  25/1200Z 16.5N 126.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
  96H  26/1200Z 17.5N 128.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 120H  27/1200Z 18.5N 129.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan
 
 
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