039 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 301409
 TCDEP5
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 AM PDT MON AUG 30 2004
  
 DVORAK T NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA HAVE ALL FALLEN TO 1.0
 NOW THAT ALL DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED. THEREFORE...GEORGETTE
 HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25
 KT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF INTERMITTENT BURSTS
 OF CONVECTION...COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...A STABLE AIR MASS
 TO THE WEST...AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
 THE CIRCULATION.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/9. THE REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO
 THE WEST STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND COULD MAINTAIN AN
 IDENTIFIABLE CIRCULATION THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AS DISSIPATING
 EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES OFTEN DO.
  
 FORECASTER BERG/LAWRENCE
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      30/1500Z 20.1N 124.9W    25 KT
  12HR VT     31/0000Z 20.3N 126.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  24HR VT     31/1200Z 20.5N 128.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     01/0000Z 20.7N 130.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     01/1200Z 20.8N 132.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     02/1200Z 20.8N 137.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     03/1200Z 20.8N 141.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
  
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