703 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 292031
 TCDEP5
 TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 PM PDT SUN AUG 29 2004
  
 VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF GEORGETTE NOW
 BECOMING COMPLETELY EXPOSED...CENTERED ABOUT 35 NM TO THE EAST OF
 THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER HAS BEEN
 MAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BUT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW
 BEGUN TO WARM AND WEAKENING MAY BE COMMENCING. CURRENT SATELLITE
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE A CONSENSUS 3.0
 SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT.
 
 NOW THAT THE CENTER OF GEORGETTE IS CLEARER TO IDENTIFY...IT APPEARS
 THAT THE MOTION IS JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST AT 280/10. THIS GENERAL
 MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS ITS
 WEAKENING TREND. THEREAFTER...THE DISSIPATING CIRCULATION WILL BE
 STEERED ON AN ACCELERATING WESTWARD TRACK ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
 LOW LEVEL RIDGE. THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY CLOSE
 AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS BUT THEN DIVERGES AFTER THAT...PROBABLY
 DUE TO DISAGREEMENTS ON HOW FAST THE SYSTEM BECOMES A REMNANT LOW.
 
 GEORGETTE IS CURRENTLY OVER WATER TEMPERATURES AROUND 25C...AND WILL
 CONTINUE MOVING OVER WATER BETWEEN 23-24C THROUGH THE FORECAST
 PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE AIR
 MASS...HIGHLIGHTED BY AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WEST OF
 125W. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RATHER GENEROUS GIVEN THE
 DETERIORATING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 BALANCES THIS BY CALLING FOR IMMEDIATE WEAKENING. GEORGETTE SHOULD
 DISSIPATE INTO A REMANT LOW BY DAYS 4 AND 5...BASED PRIMARILY ON
 THE GFS SOLUTION.
  
 FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      29/2100Z 19.7N 121.7W    45 KT
  12HR VT     30/0600Z 19.9N 123.1W    40 KT
  24HR VT     30/1800Z 20.2N 125.0W    40 KT
  36HR VT     31/0600Z 20.5N 127.1W    35 KT
  48HR VT     31/1800Z 20.7N 129.3W    30 KT
  72HR VT     01/1800Z 21.0N 133.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  96HR VT     02/1800Z 21.0N 137.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     03/1800Z 21.0N 142.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$