150 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 282028
 TCDEP5
 TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 PM PDT SAT AUG 28 2004
  
 A SOLID CLUSTER OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED OVER THE PAST
 SEVERAL HOURS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. CLOUD
 TOP TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD...APPROXIMATELY -80C...AND VISIBLE
 IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST BENEATH THESE
 CLOUDS. CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND AFWA ARE 3.0...AND
 3.5 FROM SAB....SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT.
 
 GEORGETTE HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD SPEED AS EXPECTED AND THE INITIAL
 MOTION IS NOW 280/9. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
 FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE STORM MOVES TO THE
 WEST-NORTHWEST ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
 THEREAFTER...GEORGETTE WILL PROBABLY HAVE SUCCUMBED TO THE COLDER
 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND ASSOCIATED WEAKENING SHOULD ALLOW
 THE CIRCULATION TO BE STEERED TO THE WEST BY THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE.
 MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS
 ...AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND MOVES GEORGETTE DUE WEST AFTER 48
 HOURS. ONLY THE UKMET DIFFERS AND KEEPS THE SYSTEM ON A MORE
 NORTHWESTWARD PATH WITH QUICKER WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATER.
 
 GEORGETTE WILL BE CROSSING THE 26C SST ISOTHERM WITHIN THE NEXT
 12-24 HOURS AND GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE SOON THEREAFTER.
 VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...
 BUT THIS SEEMS MOOT SINCE IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR THE SYSTEM TO
 MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE COLDER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BUT IRONICALLY ENDS
 UP BEING CLOSE TO THE GFDL INTENSITY BETWEEN 3-5 DAYS. DISSIPATION
 IS PROBABLE BY DAYS 4 AND 5...AT WHICH TIME THE GFS SHOWS THE
 SYSTEM BECOMING ELONGATED AND DIFFUSE.
  
 FORECASTER BERG/STEWART
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      28/2100Z 18.9N 117.8W    50 KT
  12HR VT     29/0600Z 19.0N 119.1W    50 KT
  24HR VT     29/1800Z 19.3N 120.9W    45 KT
  36HR VT     30/0600Z 19.7N 122.8W    40 KT
  48HR VT     30/1800Z 20.1N 124.9W    35 KT
  72HR VT     31/1800Z 20.5N 129.0W    30 KT
  96HR VT     01/1800Z 20.5N 133.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 120HR VT     02/1800Z 20.5N 137.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
  
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