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 324 
 WTPA42 PHFO 060230
 TCDCP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
 500 PM HST TUE AUG 05 2014
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/12. GENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO BE 
 STEERED BY THE DEEP LAYER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SUBTROPICAL 
 RIDGE. THIS STEERING FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH FOR THE 
 NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BEYOND 48 HOURS...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS 
 EXPECTED TO BEGIN PULLING THE CYCLONE A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD WITH 
 THE FORWARD MOTION SLOWING. IN THE LATER PERIODS...GENEVIEVE WILL 
 ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH TOWARD A DIGGING MID-LATITUDE UPPER 
 LEVEL LOW. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...
 SO THIS FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY A CONTINUATION OF THE PREVIOUS 
 ONE...BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER AT THE LONGER TIME RANGES. 
 
 GENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO BE FEELING THE EFFECTS OF 10 TO 15 KT OF 
 EASTERLY SHEAR WITH SIGNIFICANTLY RESTRICTED OUTFLOW TO THE EAST AND 
 SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE BANDING STRUCTURE NO LONGER LOOKS QUITE AS 
 IMPRESSIVE AS IT DID SIX HOURS AGO. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
 RANGE FROM 3.0 FROM PHFO AND SAB TO 2.5 FROM JTWC...AND THE CURRENT 
 INTENSITY WILL BE HELD TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. 
 
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN 
 GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SHEAR WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT 
 COUPLE OF DAYS. THE WEAKER SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
 SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IN THE NEAR TERM. 
 HOWEVER...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE DYNAMICAL AND 
 STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. THE LATEST FORECAST WILL REFLECT LITTLE CHANGE 
 FROM THE PREVIOUS...WHICH REMAINS SOMEWHAT MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN 
 THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. AT THE LONGER TIME RANGES...INCREASING 
 SHEAR FROM THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO HALT THE INTENSIFICATION. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  06/0300Z 11.6N 174.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  06/1200Z 12.2N 176.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  07/0000Z 13.1N 179.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  07/1200Z 14.2N 178.4E   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  08/0000Z 15.6N 176.3E   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  09/0000Z 18.3N 174.1E   75 KT  85 MPH
  96H  10/0000Z 23.3N 172.6E   80 KT  90 MPH
 120H  11/0000Z 29.0N 172.5E   80 KT  90 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER R BALLARD
 
 
 
 
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