324
WTPA42 PHFO 060230
TCDCP2
TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP072014
500 PM HST TUE AUG 05 2014
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/12. GENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO BE
STEERED BY THE DEEP LAYER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THIS STEERING FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BEYOND 48 HOURS...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN PULLING THE CYCLONE A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD WITH
THE FORWARD MOTION SLOWING. IN THE LATER PERIODS...GENEVIEVE WILL
ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH TOWARD A DIGGING MID-LATITUDE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...
SO THIS FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY A CONTINUATION OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE...BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER AT THE LONGER TIME RANGES.
GENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO BE FEELING THE EFFECTS OF 10 TO 15 KT OF
EASTERLY SHEAR WITH SIGNIFICANTLY RESTRICTED OUTFLOW TO THE EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE BANDING STRUCTURE NO LONGER LOOKS QUITE AS
IMPRESSIVE AS IT DID SIX HOURS AGO. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 3.0 FROM PHFO AND SAB TO 2.5 FROM JTWC...AND THE CURRENT
INTENSITY WILL BE HELD TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SHEAR WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE WEAKER SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IN THE NEAR TERM.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. THE LATEST FORECAST WILL REFLECT LITTLE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS...WHICH REMAINS SOMEWHAT MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN
THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. AT THE LONGER TIME RANGES...INCREASING
SHEAR FROM THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO HALT THE INTENSIFICATION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0300Z 11.6N 174.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 12.2N 176.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 13.1N 179.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 14.2N 178.4E 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 15.6N 176.3E 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 18.3N 174.1E 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 23.3N 172.6E 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 29.0N 172.5E 80 KT 90 MPH
$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD
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