331
WTPA42 PHFO 050241
TCDCP2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP072014
500 PM HST MON AUG 04 2014
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS MAINLY DISPLACED INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF GENEVIEVE AS A RESULT OF ABOUT 11 KT OF
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR BASED ON THE 5/0000 UTC UW/CIMSS
ANALYSIS. GENEVIEVE APPEARS TO BE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING DEEP CONVECTION STARTING TO WRAP
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. AGENCY
CENTER FIXES WERE MORE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
WITH PHFO AND SAB PUTTING THE CURRENT INTENSITY AT 30 KT AND JTWC
COMING IN AT 25 KT. BASED ON THE DVORAK DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WILL BE 30 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION OF GENEVIEVE IS 285/14 KT WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE DATELINE.
OBJECTIVE AIDS WERE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE BUT THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH MORE SPREAD...ESPECIALLY
BEYOND DAY 2 IN RESPONSE TO A MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PROJECTED
TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. THE ECMWF AND UKMET ARE
FARTHEST TO THE RIGHT WHILE THE HWRF AND GFS ARE TO THE LEFT. THE
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BUT IS WEST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. IT ALSO
INDICATES A MORE SIGNIFICANT RIGHT TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST...WHICH TAKES THE CENTER FARTHER AWAY FROM WAKE
ISLAND.
AS INDICATED ABOVE...IT APPEARS THAT GENEVIEVE IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM...AGAIN...IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY FURTHER
STRENGTHENING TO TYPHOON STATUS WEST OF THE DATELINE ON DAY 4. THIS
IS CLOSE TO THE IVCN CONSENSUS THROUGH DAY 2 BUT INDICATES SLOWER
DEVELOPMENT FROM DAY 2 THROUGH 5.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0300Z 10.5N 168.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 11.2N 171.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 12.2N 174.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 13.1N 176.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 14.0N 179.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 15.7N 175.2E 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 18.0N 172.0E 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 21.0N 170.0E 70 KT 80 MPH
$$
FORECASTER KODAMA
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