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 331 
 WTPA42 PHFO 050241
 TCDCP2
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP072014
 500 PM HST MON AUG 04 2014
 
 DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS MAINLY DISPLACED INTO THE NORTHWESTERN  
 SEMICIRCLE OF GENEVIEVE AS A RESULT OF ABOUT 11 KT OF 
 EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR BASED ON THE 5/0000 UTC UW/CIMSS 
 ANALYSIS. GENEVIEVE APPEARS TO BE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH 
 RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING DEEP CONVECTION STARTING TO WRAP 
 INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.  AGENCY 
 CENTER FIXES WERE MORE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE 
 WITH PHFO AND SAB PUTTING THE CURRENT INTENSITY AT 30 KT AND JTWC 
 COMING IN AT 25 KT. BASED ON THE DVORAK DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY 
 WILL BE 30 KT.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION OF GENEVIEVE IS 285/14 KT WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING 
 TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE DATELINE. 
 OBJECTIVE AIDS WERE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST 
 PACKAGE BUT THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH MORE SPREAD...ESPECIALLY 
 BEYOND DAY 2 IN RESPONSE TO A MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PROJECTED 
 TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC. THE ECMWF AND UKMET ARE 
 FARTHEST TO THE RIGHT WHILE THE HWRF AND GFS ARE TO THE LEFT. THE 
 FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS 
 FORECAST BUT IS WEST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. IT ALSO 
 INDICATES A MORE SIGNIFICANT RIGHT TURN TOWARD THE 
 NORTH-NORTHWEST...WHICH TAKES THE CENTER FARTHER AWAY FROM WAKE 
 ISLAND.
  
 AS INDICATED ABOVE...IT APPEARS THAT GENEVIEVE IS BECOMING BETTER 
 ORGANIZED...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. 
 THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL 
 STORM...AGAIN...IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY FURTHER 
 STRENGTHENING TO TYPHOON STATUS WEST OF THE DATELINE ON DAY 4. THIS 
 IS CLOSE TO THE IVCN CONSENSUS THROUGH DAY 2 BUT INDICATES SLOWER 
 DEVELOPMENT FROM DAY 2 THROUGH 5. 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  05/0300Z 10.5N 168.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  05/1200Z 11.2N 171.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  06/0000Z 12.2N 174.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  06/1200Z 13.1N 176.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  07/0000Z 14.0N 179.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  08/0000Z 15.7N 175.2E   60 KT  70 MPH
  96H  09/0000Z 18.0N 172.0E   65 KT  75 MPH
 120H  10/0000Z 21.0N 170.0E   70 KT  80 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KODAMA
  
 
 
 
 
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